Democrats in the New York State Senate are expecting that high turnout for the presidential election in November will give a boost to their efforts to retake the majority in the chamber, where Republicans currently hold a two-seat majority. Registered Democrats outnumber Republicans five to two in the state.

But this also creates a messaging challenge for the Democrats: how to tie their races into the national contest while also allowing candidates to communicate about the state and local issues with which legislators concern themselves day-to-day. Democrats also must pick up long-time Republican seats and hang onto seats in Republican-leaning districts where higher turnout does not necessarily favor Democrats.

State Sen. Liz Krueger (D-Manhattan), former chair of the New York State Democratic Senate Campaign Committee, believes the issues that have made President George W. Bush deeply unpopular nationwide have created a liability Democrats can exploit.

“I think that it is reasonable to assume that the big issues in national politics play out in the local elections as well,” she said.

She expects Democrats will talk a great deal about the current economic downturn.

“We are anticipating being in a recession for a long period of time,” she said. “That’s a direct reflection of the Bush administration.”

State Sen. Neil Breslin (D-Albany) said that the ongoing military presence in Iraq would also play a role in state races.

“The war reflects on the [Bush] administration, so it reflects on the Republicans,” he said.

But New York City Council Member Joseph Addabbo (D-Queens), who is preparing to challenge Republican State Sen. Serphin Maltese in Queens, said he will not be running as an “anti-war candidate,” even though registered Democrats outnumber Republicans in the district by more than two to one.

“We can talk about it, but it’s somewhat out of our jurisdiction as a state senator,” Addabbo said.

Addabbo noted that districts like his, which encompasses several Queens neighborhoods, pose a particular challenge. “The way I look at it, each community is different,” he said. “We have working-class communities, we have a very diverse district, and I have to deal with each community differently.”

He said his campaign will highlight local issues like education, jobs and public safety.

The Democrats’ newest state senator, Darrel Aubertine, may face one of the most difficult balancing acts. Aubertine won an upset victory in a February special election to represent a heavily Republican district comprised of Jefferson, Oswego, and parts of St. Lawrence Counties. Bush beat John Kerry by eight points in the three counties in 2004, and Republicans have a 60-percent advantage in party registration in his Senate district.

While holding his seat will be critical to the Democrats winning the majority, Aubertine suggested he will run a heavily local campaign that downplays both the battle for the Senate majority and the national context.

“Party politics aren’t really a concern for us,” he said. “We’re excited for a strong turnout, regardless of how the presidential race plays out here.”

Former Republican State Sen. James Wright, whose resignation earlier this year triggered the special election in which Aubertine won his seat, is reportedly considering challenging Aubertine this November because he was dismayed that his party lost this supposedly safe seat.
Veteran Democratic consultant Hank Sheinkopf, who gave tips on communication strategy to an April meeting of Democratic press secretaries, argues that a winning message for Senate Democrats will tie together the economy and good government.

“The message is that we know how to control the cost of government,” he said. “We know how to cut without hurting people. We know how to cope in tough economic times.”

Sheinkopf warned that Democrats need to work on message discipline. He expects State Senate Majority Leader Joseph Bruno (R-Rensselaer) will mount a far more aggressive campaign to retain his party’s slim majority than Democrats are expecting.

“I don’t think they’re yet ready for combat,” he said. “My general sense is that in combat, the enemy does not give up easy. These nice people have never been in combat in that way.”

But, he added, Minority Leader Malcolm Smith (D-Queens) has done a good job of imposing unity. “Under Malcolm Smith’s leadership, they have a shot,” he said.

Democratic senators are feeling confident even in the wake of Eliot Spitzer’s (D) surprise resignation and Gov. David Patterson’s (D) rocky transition. Sen. Krueger remarked that “Sen. Bruno’s been fighting to the death for the last three cycles,” which has given Democrats a chance to hone their strategy. Pointing to victories in the 2006 general election and special elections in 2007 and 2008, she said, “We met the needs of the districts we were working in.” As far as the fall goes, she concluded, “National elections are good ones for [New York] Democrats.”